The Indus Waters Treaty has been a cornerstone of water-sharing between India and Pakistan, fostering cooperation in a volatile region. However, India’s decision to suspend the treaty following the 2025 Pahalgam attack has sparked a new crisis. This blog explores the Indus Waters Treaty, the water-sharing tensions post-Pahalgam attack, and the potential consequences for South Asia’s stability.

indus waters treaty

What Is the Indus Waters Treaty?

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 under World Bank mediation, governs the distribution of water from the Indus River system’s six rivers—Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—between India and Pakistan (Indus Waters Treaty). Key provisions include:

• Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej): Under India’s control, with an annual flow of ~41 billion cubic meters.
• Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab): Under Pakistan’s control, with an annual flow of ~99 billion cubic meters, providing Pakistan ~80% of the water.
• India can use Western Rivers for limited irrigation and hydropower, provided it does not disrupt downstream flow.

The treaty includes a Permanent Indus Commission for dispute resolution, with provisions for neutral experts or arbitration courts in severe conflicts. Despite three wars (1965, 1971, Kargil), the treaty has remained resilient, making it one of the world’s most enduring water agreements (Britannica).

Pahalgam Attack and Treaty Suspension

On April 22, 2025, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam’s Baisaran Valley killed 26 people, mostly tourists, and injured 17 (Al Jazeera). Indian intelligence agencies attributed the attack to the Pakistan-based “The Resistance Front” (TRF), a Lashkar-e-Taiba offshoot. Pakistan denied involvement and condemned the attack.

On April 23, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (The Hindu). Other measures included:

• Closing the Wagah-Attari border.
• Expelling Pakistani diplomats.
• Recalling Indian High Commission staff from Pakistan.
• Ordering Pakistani nationals to leave India within 48 hours.
• Canceling the SAARC visa exemption scheme.

Pakistan labeled the suspension an “act of war” and responded by suspending the Shimla Agreement and other bilateral treaties, as well as halting trade with India (NPR).

Read this article to know more about Pahalgam attack.

Tensions Over Water Sharing

Water-sharing disputes are not new. In 2023, India proposed amending the treaty, which Pakistan rejected. In 2024, India canceled Permanent Indus Commission meetings. In March 2025, India halted Ravi River flows, impacting Pakistan’s agricultural regions (Reuters).

The Pahalgam attack escalated these tensions. Pakistan’s National Security Committee, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, threatened retaliatory measures. India’s Ministry of Jal Shakti Secretary Debashree Mukherjee reiterated demands for treaty amendments, which Pakistan dismissed (India Today).

Impact on Pakistan

Pakistan’s agricultural economy relies heavily on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, which support 80% of its agriculture and one-third of its hydropower. Suspending the treaty could disrupt crop production, food security, and social stability (India Today). Climate change has already reduced water levels by 20–25% in 2025 due to lower rainfall and snowmelt, exacerbating the crisis.

However, experts note that India’s current infrastructure lacks the capacity to fully block water flows. The Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab carry significant volumes, especially during the May–September snowmelt season. Building dams could increase flood risks in India’s upstream regions, such as Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh (The New York Times). India’s Jal Shakti Minister C.R. Patil announced plans to enhance dam capacity in the Indus basin for short-, medium-, and long-term water management.

Risk of a Water War

Water is a political and strategic weapon in South Asia. As nuclear powers, India and Pakistan face heightened risks from water-related conflicts. Pakistan’s dependence on the Indus system and India’s upstream geographic advantage complicate the situation. Satellite technology makes covert water diversion detectable, potentially triggering political or military backlash (BBC News).

Pakistan is preparing to approach the International Court of Arbitration. Strategic expert Brahma Chellaney suggests India could legally withdraw from the treaty under Article 60 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (1969) if Pakistan violates its terms (India Today).

International Reactions

The United States, France, and Israel condemned the Pahalgam attack but have not explicitly supported the treaty suspension. Some Muslim-majority countries, like the Maldives, offered mediation. The World Bank, the treaty’s mediator, has remained silent (Times of India). International mediation could be crucial in resolving this crisis.

Conclusion

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty following the 2025 Pahalgam attack has plunged India-Pakistan relations into a new crisis. While India’s infrastructure limits immediate water flow disruptions, the long-term implications threaten Pakistan’s economy and Kashmir’s stability. Diplomatic negotiations and international mediation are essential to prevent a potential “water war” and restore cooperation in South Asia.